Tropical Storm Helene is forecast to rapidly intensify into a Category 3 hurricane

The Gulf Coast is preparing for a significant hurricane as Tropical Storm Helene is expected to rapidly intensify into a Category 3 storm, targeting the Florida coast. Residents began evacuating and filling sandbags on Tuesday, two days ahead of Helene’s anticipated landfall late Thursday.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis expanded the state of emergency on Tuesday to cover 61 counties. Evacuation orders, both voluntary and mandatory, have been issued for 13 counties in the state.

In response to the looming storm, federal authorities deployed generators, emergency food, water supplies, and search-and-rescue teams. President Biden also declared an emergency in Florida to facilitate swift disaster relief efforts.

An image from the National Weather Service shows areas under hurricane warnings and watches as Helene moves northwest through the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches were also issued for parts of western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as the storm strengthened, with travel warnings in place for destinations like Cancun, Playa del Carmen, and Cozumel.

Helene is expected to accelerate toward the eastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, crossing over record-warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, which will likely fuel its intensification. Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami, emphasized that the Gulf's ocean heat content is at an all-time high, providing the conditions necessary for the storm to strengthen.

Sea surface temperatures along Helene’s path are as high as 89°F, which is 2 to 4 degrees above normal. These elevated temperatures have been made significantly more likely by human-caused climate change, according to Climate Central. The North Atlantic Ocean has also experienced record heat in 2024, storing 90% of the excess heat from greenhouse gas pollution.

In addition to record-warm waters, Helene will pass over the Loop Current, a particularly warm body of water that flows from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico. This, along with an environment favorable for storm development—with high moisture and low wind shear—creates conditions for Helene to rapidly intensify. Rapid intensification occurs when a storm increases its wind speed by at least 35 mph within 24 hours.

The National Hurricane Center predicts Helene will become a powerful Category 3 hurricane, with sustained winds peaking at 115 mph by landfall. Communities along the coast could experience severe damage to well-built homes, uprooted trees, blocked roadways, and extended outages of electricity and water services.

Residents along Florida’s west coast are being urged to follow evacuation orders and not focus solely on the center of the storm’s projected path. Helene is expected to be a large and fast-moving storm, with impacts felt far from its center, particularly on the eastern side.

Areas from the Florida Keys to Tampa could face destructive storm surge flooding, even if the center of the storm tracks further west. The National Hurricane Center predicts that Helene's size will rank in the 90th percentile for storms in the region, meaning a vast area could experience significant impacts from flooding rains, storm surge, and strong winds.

The shallow waters and shape of Florida's Gulf Coast make it particularly vulnerable to storm surge flooding during hurricanes.